Giant Ice Shelf Snaps


December 29, 2006

A giant ice shelf the size of 11,000 football fields has snapped free from Canada's Arctic, scientists said.

The mass of ice broke clear 16 months ago from the coast of Ellesmere Island, about 800 kilometres south of the North Pole, but no one was present to see it in Canada's remote north.

Scientists using satellite images later noticed that it became a newly formed ice island in just an hour and left a trail of icy boulders floating in its wake.

Warwick Vincent of Laval University, who studies Arctic conditions, travelled to the newly formed ice island and could not believe what he saw.

"This is a dramatic and disturbing event. It shows that we are losing remarkable features of the Canadian North that have been in place for many thousands of years. We are crossing climate thresholds, and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead," Vincent said today.

In 10 years of working in the region he has never seen such a dramatic loss of sea ice, he said.

The collapse was so powerful that earthquake monitors 250 kilometres away picked up tremors from it.

The Ayles Ice Shelf, roughly 66 square kilometres in area, was one of six major ice shelves remaining in Canada's Arctic.

Climate Change Link

Scientists say it is the largest event of its kind in Canada in 30 years and point their fingers at climate change as a major contributing factor.

"It is consistent with climate change," Vincent said, adding that the remaining ice shelves are 90 per cent smaller than when they were first discovered in 1906.

"We aren't able to connect all of the dots ... but unusually warm temperatures definitely played a major role."

Laurie Weir, who monitors ice conditions for the Canadian Ice Service, was poring over satellite images in 2005 when she noticed that the shelf had split and separated.

Weir notified Luke Copland, head of the new global ice lab at the University of Ottawa, who initiated an effort to find out what happened.

Sudden Collapse

Using US and Canadian satellite images, as well as data from seismic monitors, Copland discovered that the ice shelf collapsed in the early afternoon of August 13, 2005.

"What surprised us was how quickly it happened," Copland said.

"It's pretty alarming. Even 10 years ago scientists assumed that when global warming changes occur that it would happen gradually so that perhaps we expected these ice shelves just to melt away quite slowly, but the big surprise is that for one they are going, but secondly that when they do go, they just go suddenly, it's all at once, in a span of an hour."

Within days, the floating ice shelf had drifted a few kilometres offshore. It travelled west for 50 kilometres until it finally froze into the sea ice in the early northern winter.

The Canadian ice shelves are packed with ancient ice that dates back over 3,000 years. They float on the sea but are connected to land.

Derek Mueller, a polar researcher with Vincent's team, said the ice shelves got weaker and weaker as the temperature rose. He visited Ellesmere's Ward Hunt Ice Shelf in 2002 and noticed it had cracked in half.

"We're losing our ice shelves and this a feature of the landscape that is in danger of disappearing altogether from Canada," Mueller said.

"In the global perspective Antarctica has many ice shelves bigger than this one, but then there is the idea that these are indicators of climate change."

The spring thaw may bring another concern as the warming temperatures could release the ice shelf from its Arctic grip.

Prevailing winds could then send the ice island southwards, deep into the Beaufort Sea.

"Over the next few years this ice island could drift into populated shipping routes," Weir said.

"There's significant oil and gas development in this region as well, so we'll have to keep monitoring its location over the next few years."

Source:
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2006/12/29/1166895467195.html?page=fullpage
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Iran's Oil Revenue Running Dry


By BARRY SCHWEID
The Globe and Mail
December 25, 2006


WASHINGTON — Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published Monday in a journal of the National Academy of Sciences.

Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.

Iran earns about $50-billion (U.S.) a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 per cent annually. In less than five years exports could be halved and then disappear by 2015, Mr. Stern predicted.

For two decades, far longer than its designation by U.S. President George W. Bush in January 2002 as part of the “axis of evil,” the United States has deployed military forces in the region in a strategy to pre-empt emergence of a regional superpower.

Iraq was stopped in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but a hostile Iran remains a target of U.S. threats.

The U.S. military exercises have not stopped Iran's drive. But the report said the country could be destabilized by declining oil exports, hostility to foreign investment to develop new oil resources and poor state planning, Mr. Stern said.

Mr. Stern's analysis, which appears in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, supports U.S. and European suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons in violation of international understandings. But, Mr. Stern says, there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes “as badly as it claims.”

He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates. At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.

“With an explosive demand at home and poor management, the appeal of nuclear power, financed by Russia, could fill a real need for production of more electricity.”

Iran produces about 3.7 million barrels a day, about 300,000 barrels below the quota set for Iran by the oil cartel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The shortfall represents a loss of about $5.5-billion a year, Mr. Stern said. In 2004, Iran's oil profits were 65 per cent of the government's revenues.

“If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10-billion to $11-billion a year,” he said. “That is a picture of an industry in collapse.”

If the United States can “hold its breath” for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said. And that, Mr. Stern said, is good reason to belay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.

“What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do,” he said.

“The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them,” Mr. Stern said. “Here is one problem that might solve itself.”

Source:
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061225.wiranoil1225/GIStory/#
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TransCanada to buy El Paso pipeline for $3.4 billion


December 22, 2006
Bloomberg


TransCanada, Canada's biggest pipeline company, and its U.S. affiliate agreed to buy natural?gas pipelines and storage facilities from El Paso Corp. for about $3.4 billion in cash, a move that will expand the Canadian company's network by about 40 percent.

Houston?based El Paso is selling its ANR Pipeline Co., storage facilities in Michigan and a stake in another line to cut debt and improve its creditworthiness. ANR Pipeline is a 10,500 mile system that delivers gas from producing regions in Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma to population centers in Illinois, Ohio, and other Midwest states. The acquisitions will lengthen TransCanada's pipeline network to more than 35,600 miles and will nearly triple its capacity to store the fuel, which has been subject to wide swings in price, to 360 billion cubic feet.

Source:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aJaT12J56A64&refer=energy
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Some Indian Point workers afraid to raise safety issues, NRC says


December 21, 2006
Associated Press


Some workers at the Indian Point nuclear power plants are reluctant to raise safety concerns because they fear retribution, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) said Thursday, December 21. During an inspection in September, "We found out that there were workers who perceived that they would be treated negatively by management for raising issues and consequently some of the workers expressed reluctance to raise issues under certain circumstances," said NRC spokesperson Neil Sheehan. An NRC report, sent Thursday to Indian Point owner Entergy Nuclear Northeast, found that most workers said they would not hesitate to raise issues they believed involved nuclear safety. But the results still had nuclear safety implications, it said.

The NRC report criticized Entergy for not acting on "chilling" issues raised last year and earlier this year. The commission also announced Thursday that it has renewed a "deviation memo" for Indian Point that allows it to closely scrutinize Indian Point in 2007. Sheehan said the primary reasons were Indian Point's problems with groundwater contamination and faulty emergency sirens.

Source:
http://www.silive.com/newsflash/metro/index.ssf?/base/news?22/1166729646180800.xml&storylist=simetro
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FERC approves revised $1 billion Millennium Pipeline Project to bring new gas service to the northeast


December 21, 2006


The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Thursday, December 21, approved a $1.04 billion interstate natural gas pipeline project proposed by five companies that will provide Canadian and domestic gas to meet rising energy demand in New York. The project is proposed by the Millennium Pipeline Co, Columbia Gas Transmission, Empire State Pipeline and Empire Pipeline, Algonquin Gas Transmission, and Iroquois Gas Transmission System LP. The companies propose to construct and operate more than 260 miles of new pipeline and more than 115,130 horsepower of compression to transport natural gas from the U.S.?

Canada border to the New York City metropolitan region. FERC Chairman Joseph T. Kelliher observed: “The Millenium pipeline is an important project. It will help deliver badly needed natural gas supplies to the New York City metropolitan area.” The Commission previously approved the original Millennium Pipeline Project in an order issued September 19, 2002. However, the project was never built after failing to obtain necessary regulatory approval from the State of New York. Shippers for the new service include Consolidated Edison Co. and KeySpan Gas East Corp., among others.

Chairman's Statement:
http://www.ferc.gov/press?room/statements?speeches/kelliher/2006/12?21?06?kelliher?C?1.asp

Decision:
http://www.ferc.gov/whats?new/comm?meet/122106/C?1.pdf

Source:
http://www.ferc.gov/press?room/press?releases/2006/2006?4/12?21?06?C?1.asp
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Rash of Copper Wire Thefts hits Tri-state even as prices drop


December 20, 2006
Mohave Daily News (AZ)


Allen Stone Barnes and Sabrina Andrea Carlsrud are charged in the alleged break?in and theft of copper wire at the Western Area Power Administration substation in Mohave Valley, AZ. Barnes and Carlsrud are also suspects in the Tuesday, December 19, break-in and theft of copper wire from the Unisource Energy Service's Boundary Cone substation.

At Carlsrud's residence were 100 pounds of copper wire believed stolen from the Unisource substation. At the WAPA power station, someone had cut a hole in the fence and power lines and transformers had been damaged. Estimates are about $10,000 in damages. The Unisource substation was shut down for about two hours; about 500 customers lost power. A Unisource warehouse and another substation under construction were also vandalized several months ago and copper wire was stolen. Copper prices almost tripled statewide about two months ago, however, copper prices have since dropped dramatically.

Other recent thefts include copper ground wire from a Mohave Electric Cooperative substation in Bullhead City and an Aha Macav Power Service substation in Mohave Valley.

Bill Syr of the Aha Macav Power Service said thieves have stolen copper wire from more than 200 ground poles at that substation in the past six weeks.

Source:
http://www.mohavedailynews.com/articles/2006/12/21/news/local/local3.txt
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Turning Off the Digital World


By Bill Thompson
BBC News
December 15, 2006


The increasing energy demands of the digital world need to be addressed if we are to avoid severe global warming, argues regular commentator Bill Thompson.

This Christmas period offices will be empty of staff as the country shuts down for the extended celebration that has become the norm over the last few years.

Many staff will head home from work on 22 December, not to return until 2 January.

They'll leave behind the wreckage of the Christmas party, a pile of unopened mail and, if they are at all typical, a lot of glowing lights.

Unfortunately, the lights won't be on the office Christmas tree but on the monitors, photocopiers, fax machines, phone rechargers and PCs that will be left on standby or, worse, turned on throughout the break.

According to research carried out by office equipment supplier Canon, based on figures from the National Energy Foundation and Infosource, more than six million PCs will be left on over Christmas, consuming nearly forty million kilowatt hours of electricity.

Together with the printers and other hardware they will waste enough electricity to microwave 268 million mince pies, pumping 19,000 unnecessary tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, at a cost of around £8.6m.

To a large extent this waste is a result of carelessness and a failure to think, as few machines need to be left switched on when they aren't in use. We have, as a society, been too lazy about this for too long and it is time we became much more aware of the energy costs of our hi-tech lifestyle.

However, there is a wider problem since many of our beloved technological toys are remarkably inefficient and use more electricity than they really need to.

Power Processor

PCs are probably the worst culprit, because standard power supplies have changed relatively little since the original IBM PC was launched in 1981.

At that time, power supplies had to convert high-voltage alternating current to multiple direct current voltages for the different components - an inefficient process which results in a lots of wasted energy.

Portable devices are also a problem. According to energy research and consulting firm EPRI Solutions, there are six to 10 billion mobile power supplies in use around the world, and as anyone who has tried to find the right supply for their mobile phone in a pile of cables and plugs will agree, the current situation is ridiculous.

Fortunately, there is now a movement for change, especially among large energy-users.

In September, two Google engineers gave a talk at the Intel Developer Forum at which they proposed a simpler and more efficient power supply for PCs, while back in January founder Larry Page, called for a single power supply standard for portable devices.

Companies are also being asked to reduce the number of computers they use in their data centres.

One way is by running several "virtual" computers on one physical computer, a process called virtualisation. In the US Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) is offering rebates on electricity bills for companies in northern and central California that do this.

According to PG&E customers can expect to save $300 to $600 in annual energy costs for each server that is removed. But these are not just small scale projects, since PG&E's maximum rebate for a project is $4m.

Interestingly enough, one of the design innovations in the "children's laptop", developed by the One Laptop per Child project, is that the CPU can be powered down when it is not in active use since the video display is driven by separate circuitry.

This reduces its energy use significantly, and was one of the aspects the project's chief technology officer, Mary Lou Jepsen, seemed most pleased with when she appeared recently on Digital Planet on the BBC World Service to talk about the laptop.

Virtual Consumption

As well as the computers in our homes and offices, it is also important to think about the energy we are using - and the carbon we are producing - by creating and maintaining a presence online.

The virtual server that hosts my weblog is on all the time, even when nobody is viewing my pages, and although its energy use is negligible, multiply that by 55 million or more blogs or 100 million MySpace profiles and you get some significant numbers.

It gets even worse with avatars. At the moment Linden Labs, who host the popular Second Life virtual world, has around 4,000 servers. Although they have two million signed up users, at any one time only around 15,000 people are logged on.

Blogger and technology writer Nicholas Carr did some rough calculations, based on the power consumption of each server being 200 watts and the power consumption of the logged-on user's own PC being 120 watts, and reckons that each avatar uses 1,752 kilowatt hours of electricity - or about the same amount as an average person living in Brazil.
This works out at 1.17 tons of carbon dioxide per year, per avatar, or the same as driving a large car 2,300 miles.

Despite the vast energy consumption of these new technologies, we have remarkably little information as consumers.

If you go into a store in a country within the European Union to buy a fridge or a cooker you can expect to see a large label on the front telling you its energy efficiency, graded from A to G. It's hard to miss, and for many people it is an important factor in their choice of brand or product.

Perhaps it is time for the same sort of labelling for phones and other hi-tech products. Our PCs and phones and music players consume so little power relative to a cooker or a washing machine that it may not seem worth worrying about the few watts of trickle charge or the extra voltage needed for a bright screen, but it all adds up.

In the end, the cumulative effect of small changes are the key to changing our patterns of energy consumption and avoiding the coming crisis of global warming and massive climate change.

So turn off the hardware as you leave the office for your Christmas break - the only shining lights in the darkness should be the ones on the tree at home.

Bill Thompson is a regular commentator on the BBC World Service program Digital Planet.

Source:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6183259.stm
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China's alchemists turn
Coal into Black Gold


December 19, 2006
Platts Energy Bulletin


Coal-rich and keen to curb its rising dependence on imported oil, China is playing a leading role in promoting decades-old coal liquefaction technology. Three large-scale projects have been sanctioned and dozens more are in the offing.

China's National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planning body, expects alternative-energy projects like coal liquefaction to save 38 million tons of annual oil consumption during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, which runs from 2006-2010. This is equal to around 10% of China's total projected oil demand in 2010. The aim is to find a use for the country's abundant reserves of high sulfur coal, which are unsuitable for burning in power stations, while at the same time reducing the country's growing dependence on imported crude oil.

Just ten years after becoming a net oil importer, China's reliance on imported oil reached 40% in 2004, and held there for 2005. Moreover, China's domestic oil production is forecast to plateau, while demand for crude is expected to grow. Oil currently provides around 20% of China's total primary energy consumption.

By contrast, China has the world's third largest recoverable coal reserves after the US and Russia, up to half of which are high in sulfur. Coal is already the country's number one source of energy by a large margin, meeting about 70% of energy demand. The other 10% of the country's energy needs are met mostly by hydroelectricity and natural gas.

Coal liquefaction converts low-quality coal into synthetic oil products, such as methanol and dimethyl ether removing much of the polluting sulfur in the process.

Methanol can be used directly as a fuel or further converted into gasoline, while DME, currently used as a propellant in aerosol spray cans, can be handled like liquefied petroleum gas for power generation, as a substitute for diesel and LPG or as a synthetic gasoline.

Top ten countries by recoverable coal reserves (million short tons)

United States 267,312
Russia 173,074
China 126,215
India 101,903
Australia 86,531
South Africa 53,738
Ukraine 37,647
Kazakhstan 34,479
Serbia and Montenegro 18,288
Poland 15,432

Source:
http://www.platts.com/Coal/Resources/News%20Features/ctl/index.xml
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U.S. Congress Passes Bill
Extending Tariffs on
Ethanol Imports


December 11, 2006
Platts Energy Bulletin


The U.S. Senate Saturday, December 9, extended through January 1, 2009, a secondary tariff of 54cents/gallon on ethanol imports into the U.S. The measure, which was part of an omnibus tax bill, passed U.S. House last Friday, and is now on its way to President Bush for his signature.

The 54cent secondary tariff on ethanol imports is designed to offset the 51cent/gallon blender's credit that is applied to ethanol no matter its country of origin. The U.S. ethanol industry said that removing the tariff offset, which was set to expire on October 1, 2007, would have had dire consequences for the industry.

American Coalition for Ethanol vice president Brian Jennings said that allowing the tariff to lapse "...would have sharply curtailed the growth of an American renewable fuels industry that has the potential for enormous benefits to the nation's economy, environment and energy security."

Congress has supported growing the U.S. ethanol industry as a way to trim U.S. reliance on foreign oil. Last year, as part of the Energy Policy Act, Congress passed a renewable fuels standard requiring the use of 7.5 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2012.

Source:
http://www.platts.com/Oil/News/6330824.xml?p=Oil/News&sub=Oil
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The Art of Slow Protest


Ad Busters


PART ONE: DO THE BUDDHA WALK

The Buddha walk has its origins in the 1992 documentary movie Baraka, in the scene where a monk is moving ever so slowly and peacefully through a busy New York city street. The idea was adapted for Buy Nothing Day in a large shopping mall – one of the world’s largest – in Edmonton, Canada.

Four of us started moving in super-slow motion, one behind the other, as the busy mall patrons passed us by. The action worked – shopper after shopper stopped to watch as we made our way from the ground floor to the main floor. People gathered, and many of them wondered out loud what we were doing and why we were there. Some of them thought we were part of the local fringe theater festival. Others remarked that we were simply strange; one person even suggested that we might steal something. Eventually a mall security officer arrived to engaged us in a conversation as we continued our slow progression through the mall.

SECURITY: You have to stop that or I’ll have to remove you.

US: Stop what?

SECURITY: What you are doing.

US: What are we doing?

SECURITY: You are creating a spectacle.

US: How are we creating a spectacle?

SECURITY: Well . . . uh . . . you are walking very slowly.

US: [slowly pointing to an elderly person moving across the mall very slowly]: Well, what about her? She’s moving very slowly.

SECURITY: No, she’s moving at the appropriate speed.

US: Can you show us what is the appropriate speed? I mean, how slowly can we walk and still remain in the mall?

SECURITY [getting flustered]: No, you simply have to leave the mall. Leave the mall or I will call the police to remove you.

At that point, we left the mall. We didn’t feel the need to press the issue with the police department. But as we walked off, a strange thing happened. The crowd that had gathered started clapping for us and jeering at the security officials. These shoppers – primarily middle-aged people – were now applauding, partly because of the absurdity of the situation and partly, perhaps, because we all have a desire to stand up to authority and we get a certain sense of catharsis when other people do.

We live in a time when we all seem to be out of breath most of the time, running from place to place. The Buddha walk lets you take a much-needed breath. At the same time, the action breaks people out of their routines, which is one of the first steps to change.

And, besides, it’s one of the best actions for any old lazy day when you want just a little something to do.

Adapted from An Action a Day Keeps Global Capitalism Away (Between the Lines, 2004), a book by Mike Hudema that outlines 52 enjoyable ways to protest globalization.

PART TWO: DO THE JESUS WALK

A variation on the Buddha walk tailor-made for the holidays. Click on the preview image to download the Jesus mask (or check out the back cover of Adbusters #69 for an already-printed mask):

1. Print the mask PDF, preferably in colour. Or detach the whole back cover from the magazine (and photocopy for multiple masks).

2. Glue each mask, face up, to a page of durable card stock (this will stop it from tearing or creasing when worn).

3. Now cut around the edges of the mask along the dotted line.

4. Get a sharp knife and cut out the eye holes.

5. Cut a U-shape around the bottom and sides of the nose, without cutting out the nose entirely, to allow your own nose to come part of the way through.

6. Punch holes at the sides of the mask, and tie a generous length of string or elastic to either side. You can use transparent tape to reinforce the holes.

7. Whoever will be wearing the mask can tie a knot in the string or elastic to shorten it to the appropriate length.

8. Remember that biblical robes (bedsheets work nicely) and other props are useful for completing the look.

9. Now hit the malls – but do it slowly!

Of course, not everyone celebrates Christmas, and not everyone who does is Christian. But the list of actions you can do for Buy Nothing Day and Buy Nothing Christmas is endless. For more ideas, and to see what others have planned, take some time to explore this site and others devoted to Buy Nothing Christmas.

Source:
http://adbusters.org/metas/eco/bnd/bnxmas/view.php?id=345
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White House Tightens
Publishing Rules for
USGS Scientists


By John Heilprin
Associated Press
December 14, 2006


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Bush administration is clamping down on scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey, who study everything from caribou mating to global warming, subjecting them to controls on research that might go against official policy.

New rules require screening of all facts and interpretations by agency scientists. The rules apply to all scientific papers and other public documents, even minor reports or prepared talks, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press.

Top officials at the Interior Department's scientific arm say the rules only standardize what scientists must do to ensure the quality of their work and give a heads-up to the agency's public relations staff.

“This is not about stifling or suppressing our science, or politicizing our science in any way,'' Barbara Wainman, the agency's director of communications, said Wednesday. “I don't have approval authority. What it was designed to do is to improve our product flow.''

Some agency scientists, who until now have felt free from any political interference, worry that the objectivity of their work could be compromised.

“I feel as though we've got someone looking over our shoulder at every damn thing we do. And to me that's a very scary thing. I worry that it borders on censorship,'' said Jim Estes, an internationally recognized marine biologist who works for the geological unit. “The explanation was that this was intended to ensure the highest possible quality research,'' said Estes, a researcher at the agency for more than 30 years. “But to me it feels like they're doing this to keep us under their thumbs. It seems like they're afraid of science. Our findings could be embarrassing to the administration.''

The new requirements state that the USGS's communications office must be “alerted about information products containing high-visibility topics or topics of a policy-sensitive nature.''

The agency's director, Mark Myers, and its communications office also must be told — prior to any submission for publication — “of findings or data that may be especially newsworthy, have an impact on government policy, or contradict previous public understanding to ensure that proper officials are notified and that communication strategies are developed.''

Patrick Leahy, USGS's head of geology and its acting director until September, said Wednesday that the new procedures would improve scientists' accountability and “harmonize'' the review process. He said they are intended to maintain scientists' neutrality.

“Our scientific staff is second to none,'' he said. “This notion of scientific gotcha is something we do not want to participate in. That does not mean to avoid contentious issues.''

The changes amount to an overhaul of commonly accepted procedures for all scientists, not just those in government, based on anonymous peer reviews. In that process, scientists critique each other's findings to determine whether they deserve to be published.

From now on, USGS supervisors will demand to see the comments of outside peer reviewers' as well any exchanges between the scientists who are seeking to publish their findings and the reviewers.

The Bush administration, as well as the Clinton administration before it, has been criticized over scientific integrity issues. In 2002, the USGS was forced to reverse course after warning that oil and gas drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would harm the Porcupine caribou herd. One week later a new report followed, this time saying the caribou would not be affected.

Related Stories:
Scientists Say White House Muzzled Them
http://www.livescience.com/environment/061102_ap_gw_censor.html

White House Said to Block Climate Study
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/060926_ap_whitehouse_hurricane.html

Source:
http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/061214_ap_usgs_screening.html
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Concern over Europe 'Snow Crisis'


Unseasonably warm conditions across Europe are being greeted with a mixture of disbelief and despair by those who normally rely on cold winters.


By James Cove
BBC
December 17, 2006


Ski resorts across the European Alps are becoming increasingly worried as current bad snow conditions threaten the all important Christmas holiday period.

This autumn has been one of the worst on record with high temperatures and little snowfall.

Many resorts have had to postpone their openings and the main ski races have been cancelled because of a lack of snow.

With millions of skiers heading to the resorts over the next week there are concerns that the open runs will be very busy and people could be put off from booking again at Christmas and the New Year, costing the multi-million pound industry heavily in lost revenue, and threatening jobs.

Climate Change

Many believe global warming is to blame for the lack of snow.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development warned that many low-level resorts could soon be unviable and predicted warmer temperatures in the future.

Already banks are refusing to offer loans to resorts under 1,500 metres as they fear for their future snow cover. Germany is threatened the most, followed by some Austrian and Italian resorts.

However, the picture is not as bleak as some say, with the high resorts having good conditions on some runs.

I am in the Swiss resort of Verbier and the open runs have good snow and more is set to open this weekend helped by artificial snow.

"We have many new snow-making cannons across our slopes and this has helped greatly," Pierre-Yves Deleze told the BBC.

"Some snow is forecast to fall next week and then everything should be OK. If not though, it will make us more nervous for Christmas."

'Higher ground'

The best skiing is to be found on the high resorts with glaciers: Tignes and Les Deux Alpes in France; Zermatt, Saas Fee and Verbier in Switzerland, and Obergurgl in Austria.

The Ski Club of Great Britain advises people to head for these high resorts. "There is still some good skiing to be found around The Alps," said spokesperson Betony Garner.

"It is not dire but you do have to head for the high resorts and expect that some of the runs will be crowded due to the lack of snow elsewhere."

With poor snow in Andorra, a destination increasingly popular with British holiday-makers, the Pyrenees is not much of an option.

In contrast, North America has had a very good start to the ski season with substantial snowfalls.

"We have seen a big rise in bookings for the North American resorts with many more in the last few weeks," said Marion Telsnig from Crystal Holidays.

But perhaps what the ski industry needs to do more than anything is to educate people not to expect such good skiing in December, but rather consider skiing later in the season as climate change affects the snowfall patterns.

Nobody knows what to make of it. This is the middle of December in a country known for the severity of its winters.

There's not a snowflake to be seen.

Red Square should be covered in white by now. It's not. Its cobblestones are as stubbornly damp and grey as the skies overhead.

There would normally be ice on the Moskva River. There's none.

"It's just fantasy!" is the way the weather forecast began on one of Moscow's radio stations earlier this week. The announcer's voice betrayed a mixture of disbelief and despair.

That's because Russians are proud of their cold winters.

Some people welcome the fact that walking and driving the snowless streets and pavements is easier than slipping and sliding. Others, though, definitely feel that something is wrong.

'Confused' animals

Temperatures for the last couple of weeks have been about five degrees above zero. At this time of year, five below zero would be more usual.

The brown bears are half-asleep - they haven't gone into their dens yet at Moscow Zoo

It has been the warmest December since records began in 1879.

Muscovites who are used to wrapping up against the bitter cold are walking around dressed as they normally would be in October.

It is not just the people who are confused. Russia's wildlife is not sure what time of year it is. Hibernation has been put off.

"The brown bears are half-asleep," says Natalia Istratova, a spokeswoman for Moscow Zoo. "They haven't gone into their dens yet."

Snakes and other reptiles have yet to move to their winter quarters. Traditional winter pastimes of skiing and ice-fishing have had to wait.

People selling thick woollen socks and mittens outside the Russian capital's metro stations are suffering a dramatic drop in trade.

The weather is expected to get colder as the month goes on. It is strange to see Christmas and New Year decorations in the Russian capital when there's no snow on the ground.

Mild, wet, weather on New Year's Eve might even dampen Russia's normally raucous celebrations.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/6185345.stm
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A SAFE Approach to
The Energy Debate


By Bart Mongoven
Stratfor
Public Policy Intelligence Report
December 14, 2006


Dec. 13 saw the launch of yet another campaign in the United States for a new national energy policy, this one led by Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE). The coalition is headed by a combination of former U.S. defense and foreign policy leaders and a long list of corporate chief executives. SAFE's role, as expressed during the unveiling of the new campaign, is to argue that the U.S. economy and foreign policy are poorly served by the country's current energy policy, particularly the country's reliance on the Middle East for oil.

The recommendations that SAFE has issued are not unrealistic, which makes them remarkable. A number of coalitions have sprung up in the past three years to discuss the ways in which the nation's energy system is broken. Former CIA Director James Woolsey manages two coalitions designed to enlist support from foreign policy experts on climate and energy issues. There is an energy coalition for Christian evangelicals. There is one for labor. Meanwhile, the more familiar environmental coalitions have even given way to environmental-labor and environmental-NRA-hunter alliances. The purpose of these coalitions is to increase the constituencies that are being reached with the message that, first, the current system is broken (or intolerably dangerous) and, second, we need to change it in ways that either aid foreign policy or slow climate change or stop habitat loss.

After years of differentiating between energy issues and environmental issues, environmentalists have put themselves at the center of the debate. In doing so, the environmental community has taken on one of the most complex issues the country faces. It is important to note that the environmental community has not historically been able to provide realistic answers to the complex problems the energy issue raises. SAFE's flashy entry into the debate raises the stakes dramatically, especially since the Democratic Congress seems amenable to taking up some form of environment/energy legislation that addresses issues of security, climate change and prices. The key question for the environmental community is whether it is willing to make concessions and take a public stance as a significant player in this debate or whether it will be pushed to the periphery by more pragmatic, moderate voices such as those that constitute SAFE.

The SAFE Premise

SAFE is predicated on the idea that energy policy is a crucial national security concern, just behind weapons proliferation as a threat to the country. SAFE argues that the country can improve its security with a mix of increased domestic oil and gas supplies, increased security around oil supplies in allied non-Arab countries, increased energy efficiency and increased refining capacity. The coalition presents the list of recommendations as a "menu" from which policymakers can pick and choose. The point of the menu is to provide politically and technologically feasible methods of ensuring continued, reliable energy throughout the country.

During the coalition's press briefing Dec. 13 in Washington, D.C., FedEx founder and CEO Frederick Smith characterized the SAFE report by saying, "During the past two decades, U.S. energy security has grown worse with each passing year. Today's recommendations aim to break this cycle of failure by focusing on both increasing supply and reducing demand. Republicans need to accept sensible increases in vehicle fuel efficiency standards and Democrats must be willing to allow responsible expansion of oil exploration and production. This grand supply-demand compromise is the best path forward."

SAFE's co-chairs are Smith and former Marine Commandant and retired Gen. P.X. Kelley. Other coalition members include Michael Eskew, the CEO of UPS, Inc.; Adam Goldstein of Royal Caribbean International; Herbert Kelleher of Southwest Airlines; and Andrew Liveris of the Dow Chemical Co.

Energy in the 110th Congress

SAFE's entry into the energy debate reflects the fact that, because of the change in Congress, energy issues are poised to return to national policy attention in 2007. Republicans passed a national Energy Bill in 2005 that solidified a number of policies, but many Democrats would like to undo parts of this bill and add additional elements that will both bear a clear Democratic stamp and also draw clear political distinctions between the two dominant parties.

The Democrats inherit a very complicated debate and set of potential trade-offs. In energy issues, the trade-offs are almost infinite. Take, for instance, the chemical industry's participation in SAFE. The industry's interest is in inexpensive energy and in decreased prices for natural gas. Of these two, as long as energy prices are predictable, the industry would rather see lower natural gas prices. Environmentalists, meanwhile, advocate reducing greenhouse gas and other air emissions by convincing American utilities to switch from coal to natural gas. From the utilities' perspective, this is expensive -- an added cost that most utilities can push down to customers -- but it also dramatically reduces the regulatory burden and uncertainty surrounding future regulations, so some are moving toward natural gas.

For the chemical industry, this move by utilities means burning irreplaceable feedstock when there are alternative sources for energy creation. It also means that in the United States, where gas is scarce and more expensive than Taiwan or Europe, the U.S. chemical industry's key feedstock is more expensive than for its rivals overseas. For the utilities, the switch means moving away from coal, which is plentiful in the United States and, over the long term, has relatively predictable supply dynamics. For environmentalists, the move has led to infighting about the construction of new liquefied natural gas facilities. In short, the issue of natural gas policy alone has permutations that can be discussed for months. What is a legislator to do if he wants to retain the U.S. chemicals industry and reduce power plant pollution?

An easy answer that has been floated is to move to "clean coal," a technology that promises to reduce the carbon and particulate pollution from coal used in electric utilities. This possible answer frees up natural gas, but it still has critics, including some environmentalists who argue that the environmental impact of mining alone is reason to move away from coal. Others argue that the carbon capture and other elements of clean coal are not proven and that they will continue the American focus on greenhouse-gas-emitting energy systems.

Similar chain reactions of decisions and consequences -- predicted and unpredictable -- are triggered by any discussion of automobile fuel efficiency (can American automakers survive if fuel efficiency standards are raised?), airline fuels, increased oil exploration and production. Literally dozens of other examples can be used that show the same depth of trade-offs, and the more politicians study the issues the less comfortable they are making new policies.

The Role of Environmentalists

Coalitions such as SAFE provide these politicians with a key service -- a vetted, bipartisan view of complex issues. The politics of SAFE are almost impossible to stereotype, and the interests involved are sufficiently varied to suggest a well-thought-out agenda. At some point, all SAFE members are advocating compromises that work against their immediate interests,which lends credibility to the entire undertaking. The business leaders are essentially signing off on the general acceptability of these specific menu items.

For environmentalists, SAFE's entry into the energy debate presents a unique challenge. The environmental community was instrumental in developing the argument that "oil addiction" is a foreign policy issue. The strategy to use oil addiction and foreign affairs was cut short, however, when the president conceded that the country was "addicted to foreign oil" in his State of the Union address in January. In doing this, he essentially co-opted the environmentalists' strategy -- taking the "foreign oil" elements and turning them into his own issue.

In response, the U.S. environmental community has been forced to come up with new arguments about the relevance of its position. Environmentalists have had great success with a state-by-state strategy that is increasing business attention to the climate issue -- witness SAFE's significant business membership -- by forcing businesses to see that they cannot avoid the issue altogether. These successes have begun to increase the amount of money being invested in the next generation of energy-efficient technologies.

However, despite the success of the state-level strategy, the national environmental movement has lost its place among the issue leaders on energy. With a Democratic Congress presumably coming into place (the health of Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., remains unclear at this writing), the time is right for environmentalists to strike. The problem is, when they do strike, they now must present a plan as compelling to congressional Democrats as the SAFE plan and those of other more traditionally bipartisan groups. If they do not compete with SAFE and its ilk, environmentalists will again move to the wings while the bulk of federal policy is made without them, despite a Democratic Congress.

Internally, there are a lot of barriers for the environmental movement to meet a high bar of pragmatism and concessions. First, the movement remains a fractured coalition without a clear manifesto or single source of wisdom from which preferred policies can be derived. Instead, policy recommendations are made by committee, and in the environmental community the committees contain a wide array of ideologies and approaches to environmentalism. At the end of the day, it has been nearly impossible for the nation's environmentalists to agree on a specific, realistic policy.

For example, it is near heresy to suggest that the Sierra Club endorse the use of nuclear power. Many important environmental leaders are willing to explore nuclear power if it is a route to significantly cutting the nation's greenhouse gas emissions, but any coalition that wants to claim it represents the American environmental movement must also have the participation of the Sierra Club. Therefore, nukes are off the table.

If American environmentalists are going to shed their reputation as professional critics who offer few solutions, it should happen now. If they offer a complementary energy plan that suggests a willingness to compromise, they will dramatically increase their relevance in the politics of the 110th Congress. Not only are environmental values an important part of the emerging Democratic party strategy, the party also needs a set of issues that it can use to draw clear distinctions between Democrats and Republicans. Environmental issues remain a strong piece of the Democratic realm, and Republicans have done little to address them.

Ultimately, it will be nearly impossible for the environmental community to come together around a realistic energy policy; the best it can hope to achieve is to move the debate closer to its point of view. Pulling the mainstream debate toward this position is, on one hand, a significant part of the environmentalists' mission; on the other hand, it is a statement that environmentalists will forever be on the periphery of the mainstream -- never to be taken too seriously.

Source:
http://www.stratfor.com/
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Ebola Outbreak Kills 5000 Gorillas


December 8, 2006
Science Daily


Over the last decade human outbreaks of the deadly Ebola virus in Africa have been repeatedly linked to gorilla and chimpanzee deaths in nearby forests. Hotly debated has been whether these wild ape deaths were isolated incidents or part of a massive die-off. New research published in the journal Science puts this debate to rest, providing strong evidence that Ebola killed at least 5,000 gorillas at a single site. The study also provides new hope for controlling the devastating impact of Ebola on wild gorilla and chimpanzee populations (Science, 8 December 2006).


Protected areas with major ape populations.
(Image: Peter Walsh, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology)

Since reports of ape die-offs first circulated widely in 2003, sceptics have doubted how large these die-offs were and whether Ebola was even the cause. The new study, led by Magdalena Bermejo of the University of Barcelona, allays these doubts because it was conducted in a closely monitored gorilla population where genetic tests confirmed Ebola as the cause of death. Bermejo and colleagues from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology and Uppsala University first showed that 93% (221 of 238) individually known gorillas at the Lossi Sanctuary in northwest Congo were killed by Ebola during outbreaks in 2002 and 2003. They then used transect surveys to show that 95% gorilla mortality rates extended over a much larger area of several thousand square kilometres. Chimpanzees were also heavily affected, with a mortality rate of 77%.

Lossi was just one in a series of large gorilla and chimpanzee die-offs caused by Ebola over the last twelve years. Accurate figures on exactly how many apes have died are not yet available. But given the large amount of prime habitat affected, these Ebola outbreaks may have killed as much as 25% of the world gorilla population. Particularly troubling has been the concentration of Ebola impact on large, remote protected areas that were designed to be the bulwarks of ape conservation efforts. Ebola has not totally made apes totally extinct from these areas but it has pushed once huge populations down to smaller sizes at which they are dramatically less resilient to illegal hunting and other looming threats.

Just as troubling are recent studies showing that the Ebola infection wave is spreading rapidly towards several of the remaining large protected areas in the region. Results from the new study suggest that protecting these remaining ape populations from Ebola may be much more feasible than previously appreciated. At Lossi, most gorillas appeared not to be infected directly from some reservoir host, as previously assumed. Rather, initial spillover from a reservoir host appeared to trigger an epidemic that spread from gorilla social group to gorilla social group. This opens the door to targeted vaccination strategies that, by breaking the chain of transmission, could be much more efficient than in the case of outbreaks driven entirely by reservoir spillover. The consistent spread rate of the Ebola infection wave also suggests that vaccination could be targeted just ahead of the advancing wave.

The current lack of a vaccination program is not due to a lack of vaccine options, as several different vaccines have now protected laboratory monkeys from Ebola and major vaccine labs are anxious to help. Rather, "Uncertainty about whether a large Ebola control effort was necessary or even possible has paralyzed large donors and major conservation organizations," said Peter Walsh, a co-author from Max Planck. "We are hoping that the starkness of our results will push some public or private donor to finally commit the two or three million dollars necessary to develop a safe and effective way of delivering Ebola vaccine to wild apes."

Walsh contends that Ebola vaccination is a cost effective method of ape conservation. "People in the conservation community are intimidated by the up-front costs of vaccination and would prefer to instead spend the money on anti-poaching. What they are not factoring in is the fact that one year of Ebola vaccination could save as many apes as decades of anti-poaching. We need to do both."

Walsh also points out that Ebola has the potential to quickly destroy years of ecotourism investment. For example, Bermejo’s gorilla habituation program at Lossi was set up in the mid-1990’s in collaboration with the European Union’s Ecosystem Forestiere d’Afrique Centrale (ECOFAC) project to bring ecotourism revenue to local people. Ebola not only wiped out the habituated gorillas at Lossi, it also neutralized years of ecotourism investment in neighbouring Odzala National Park by devastating gorilla populations there.

"We are in a period where relatively modest investments in both Ebola control and anti-poaching would go a very long way towards insuring the future of our closest relatives," said Walsh. "Let’s not blow it."

Sources:
Max-Planck-Institute
http://www.mpg.de/

Article
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/12/061208101331.htm
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NEW BILLION-DOLLAR CROP


Popular Mechanics
February, 1938


AMERICAN farmers are promised a new cash crop with an annual value of several hundred million dollars, all because a machine has been invented which solves a problem more than 6,000 years old. It is hemp, a crop that will not compete with other American products. Instead, it will displace imports of raw material and manufactured products produced by underpaid coolie and peasant labor and it will provide thousands of jobs for American workers throughout the land.

The machine which makes this possible is designed for removing the fiber-bearing cortex from the rest of the stalk, making hemp fiber available for use without a prohibitive amount of human labor.

Hemp is the standard fiber of the world. It has great tensile strength and durability. It is used to produce more than 5,000 textile products, ranging from rope to fine laces, and the woody "hurds" remaining after the fiber has been removed contain more than seventy-seven per cent cellulose, and can be used to produce more than 25,000 products, ranging from dynamite to Cellophane.

Machines now in service in Texas, Illinois, Minnesota and other states are producing fiber at a manufacturing cost of half a cent a pound, and are finding a profitable market for the rest of the stalk. Machine operators are making a good profit in competition with coolie-produced foreign fiber while paying farmers fifteen dollars a ton for hemp as
it comes from the field.

From the farmers' point of view, hemp is an easy crop to grow and will yield from three to six tons per acre on any land that will grow corn, wheat, or oats. It has a short growing season, so that it can be planted after other crops are in. It can be grown in any state of the union. The long roots penetrate and break the soil to leave it in perfect condition for the next year's crop. The dense shock of leaves, eight to twelve feet above the ground, chokes out weeds. Two successive crops are enough to reclaim land that has been abandoned because of Canadian thistles or quack grass.

Under old methods, hemp was cut and allowed to lie in the fields for weeks until it "retted" enough so the fibers could be pulled off by hand. Retting is simply rotting as a result of dew, rain and bacterial action. Machines were developed to separate the fibers mechanically after retting was complete, but the cost was high, the loss of fiber great, and the quality of fiber comparatively low. With the new machine, known as a decorticator, hemp is cut with a slightly modified grain binder. It is delivered to the machine where an automatic chain conveyor feeds it to the breaking arms at the rate of two or three tons per hour. The hurds are broken into fine pieces which drop into the hopper, from where they are delivered by blower to a baler or to truck or freight car for loose shipment. The fiber comes from the other end of the machine, ready for baling.

From this point on almost anything can happen. The raw fiber can be used to produce strong twine or rope, woven into burlap, used for carpet warp or linoleum backing or it may be bleached and refined, with resinous by-products of high commercial value. It can, in fact, be used to replace the foreign fibers which now flood our markets.

Thousands of tons of hemp hurds are used every year by one large powder company for the manufacture of dynamite and TNT. A large paper company, which has been paying more than a million dollars a year in duties on foreign-made cigarette papers, now is manufacturing these papers from American hemp grown in Minnesota. A new factory in Illinois is producing fine bond papers from hemp. The natural materials in hemp make it an economical source of pulp for any grade of paper manufactured, and the high percentage of alpha cellulose promises an unlimited supply of raw material for the thousands of cellulose products our chemists have developed.

It is generally believed that all linen is produced from flax.

Actually, the majority comes from hemp--authorities estimate that more than half of our imported linen fabrics are manufactured from hemp fiber. Another misconception is that burlap is made from hemp. Actually, its source is usually jute, and practically all of the burlap we use is woven by laborers in India who receive only four cents a day. Binder twine is usually made from sisal which comes from Yucatan and East Africa.

All of these products, now imported, can be produced from home-grown hemp. Fish nets, bow strings, canvas, strong rope, overalls, damask tablecloths, fine linen garments, towels, bed linen and thousands of other everyday items can be grown on American farms. Our imports of foreign fabrics and fibers average about $200,000,000 per year; in raw fibers alone we imported over $50,000,000 in the first six months of 1937. All of this income can be made available for Americans.

The paper industry offers even greater possibilities. As an industry it amounts to over $1,000,000,000 a year, and of that eighty per cent is imported. But hemp will produce every grade of paper, and government figures estimate that 10,000 acres devoted to hemp will produce as much paper as 40,000 acres of average pulp land.

One obstacle in the onward march of hemp is the reluctance of farmers to try new crops. The problem is complicated by the need for proper equipment a reasonable distance from the farm. The machine cannot be operated profitably unless there is enough acreage within driving range and farmers cannot find a profitable market unless there is machinery to handle the crop. Another obstacle is that the blossom of the female hemp plant contains marijuana, a narcotic, and it is impossible to grow hemp without producing the blossom. Federal regulations now being drawn up require registration of hemp growers, and tentative proposals for preventing narcotic production are rather stringent.

However, the connection of hemp as a crop and marijuana seems to be exaggerated. The drug is usually produced from wild hemp or locoweed which can be found on vacant lots and along railroad tracks in every state. If federal regulations can be drawn to protect the public without preventing the legitimate culture of hemp, this new crop can
add immeasurably to American agriculture and industry.

Popular Mechanics Magazine can furnish the name and address of the maker of, or dealer in, any article described in its pages. If you wish this information, write to the Bureau of Information, inclosing a stamped, self-addressed envelope.

Source:
http://www.globalhemp.com/Archives/Magazines/new_billion_dollar_crop.html
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